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Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Super Bowl Betting System's That Will Win You Money

Many people have at least heard of the Super Bowl Betting System and its ability to pick the winner of the game. It has been around for a number of years, or at least some variation of it, and there are those who will swear by it, including at least one sports service who charges for the selection.

The system started off going 32-3-2 against the point spread, but hasn't fared as well in the past couple of years and is now (I believe) 33-6-2 versus the point spread.

The person most often credited with developing the system was former NFL coach Hank Stram.



Super Bowl Betting System
Note: Stats used are for regular season games only.

1. Give 10 points if a team has won a Super Bowl in the last three years.
2. Give 8.0 points to any team whose opponent is playing in their very first Super Bowl in franchise history.
3. Give 8.0 points to the team that has allowed the fewer defensive rushes.
4. Give 7.0 points to the team with the best straight up win/loss record including playoffs.
5. Give 7.0 points to the team with the most offensive rushes.
6. Give 5.0 points to the team with the lower defensive rush average per carry.
7. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the best net kick-punt touchdown returns.
8. Give 4.0 points to the team the team with the better record against the point spread.
9. Give 4.0 points to the team that has the superior net penalty yards.
10. Give 3.5 points to the team that has the best yards per pass attempt.
11. Give 3.5 points to the team that has given up the fewest points.
12. Give 3.5 points to the team that has allowed the fewest rushing touchdowns.
13. Give 3.0 points to the team that has the most sacks.
14. Give 2.5 points to the team with the fewest offensive pass attempts.
15. Give 2.0 points to the team that had the best net punts (total) on the year.
16. Give 1.5 points to the team with the best average per offensive rush.
17. Give 1.0 points to the team with the best completion percentage.

There is a bit of work involved in determining which team the system picks, so I've gone ahead and done the math for you.

Going down the list, we give the following points to each team:
No. 1: New England 10 points
No. 2: No points given
No. 3: New England 8 points
No. 4: New England 7 points
No. 5: New York 7 points
No. 6: New York 5 points
No. 7: New England 4 points
No. 8: No points given
No. 9: New York 4 points
No. 10: New England 3.5 points
No. 11: New England 3.5 points
No. 12: New England 3.5 points
No. 13: New York 3 points
No. 14: New York 2.5 points
No. 15: New England 2 points
No. 16: New York 1.5 points
No. 17: New England 1 point

(Remember, we're using regular season statistics, so No. 8 is a wash, as both teams were 10-6 against the point spread for the year.)


Adding up the totals for each team gives New England 42.5 points and the New York Giants 23 points. The System pick for the 2008 Super Bowl, therefore, is the New England Patriots.



One More Super Bowl System

Another Super Bowl system, and one that is much easier to use, has a record of 24-15-2 since the inception of the big game and just involves three steps:

1. Go against any team that did not cover the point spread in their championship game.
2. If both teams covered the spread in the championship games, bet on the team with the highest number of straight up wins entering the Super Bowl.
3. If both teams have the same number of wins, bet on the underdog.


For this year, the answer is found in the first step, as the New England Patriots didn't cover the point spread in the AFC Championship Game, while the New York Giants covered the point spread against the Green Bay Packers. Therefore, the New York Giants the selection for this system.


There you have two Super Bowl systems that have been around for a number of years and have withstood the test of time.

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